The latest from JWC. SA looks like it will be really clobbered, but the most alarming thing is that there may be more to come next week.
***** SPECIAL DETAILED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK FOR SA, VIC, TAS, NSW , PARTS OF QLD & ACT REGIONS ****
- Widespread flooding is possible for south eastern states, some parts of north eastern Victoria & south eastern NSW could possibly see the worst flooding since 1993 including the Murray river
- Flash flooding
- Severe thunderstorms for south eastern and eastern states
- DAMAGING winds possible in VIC, NSW and TAS.
- In SA winds may become DESTRUCTIVE
- Coastal flooding and erosion expected along large parts of the SA coast
We have two major weather systems for south eastern Australia between now and Monday and further cold fronts to bring more rain and showers Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
What does this mean? Parts of south eastern NSW, Northern parts of Victoria especially the north east and parts of SA, Adelaide regions/hills, Mid North will see some serious rainfall! Northern and eastern Tasmania will also see heavy rain.
This will renew the flooding for many rivers.. We are not a hydrologist's but can see many rivers reaching "Moderate to Major flooding" through VIC, NSW, parts of SA and possibly TAS.
In SA rivers like the Gawler concern us, Wakefield, Onkaparianga, Light river, Hutt and possibly the Torrens.
In Victoria the Loddon, Wimmera, Avoca, Campaspe, Broken, Goulburn, Kiewa, Mitta Mitta, Seven Creek, Murray, Kings, Ovens, Glenelg are all a major concern to us... By early next week we can see all these river systems reaching moderate to major flooding in fact we are expecting parts of north eastern Victoria to see the biggest floods since 1993. Parts of North eastern Victoria may see 100-200mm the next week especially the ranges.
Adjoining regions of NSW we expect similar set up.. The Murray as we mentioned.. Also we have deep concerns for the Murrumbidgee with moderate to major flooding by mid next week, Lachlan we think things may get worse before they get better, Belubula, Macquarie, Naomi, Tumut, Snowy Bogan, Castlereagh rivers.
In Tasmania the situation isn't quite as dire as the rain hasn't been as bad in recent weeks and through August however if widespread heavy rain falls from both systems in the north and north east of the state the Meander, Macquarie, Mersey, South Esk, North Esk rivers are a concern.
In Queensland there will also be some rain and wind but nothing like we have seen in recent weeks (rain side of things) so we don't expect inland river systems to be too much worse than what they are now however severe thunderstorms may cause locally damaging winds.
On top of this we are going to have issues with winds parts of south eastern Australia may see wind damage the next few days especially in SA with damaging to destructive winds possible there, large parts of Vic and into NSW and possibly Tasmania may also see damaging wind gusts as well as coastal flooding and erosion over large parts of the SA coast (Ceduna to Adelaide most risk).
Given this event is one of the strongest for September in 25 years, given we have another big system to follow straight behind it, given the ground is already saturated in most places, given there will be more snow melt on the NSW alps and Vic alps we could possibly end up seeing the worse and most widespread flooding across south eastern Australia in decades by early-mid next week.
Please take heed!
