Codan the company and stock.

[Magilla]

I don't think the price of the GPZ is s scaring too many people off. I was talking to the guy in the detector shop in Charters Towers yesterday and he said he had sold 64 7000's and while out this morning I bumped into a couple of fossickers that had bought the 65th off him yesterday afternoon. They were complete newbies so it is not just the experienced people buying them. I have no idea how many 5000's get sold but the 7000 sales surprised me.

hes not a very happy chappy at that shop and those figures as a result, amaze me !!
GT

That is exactly what we thought when we were there. The old couple that bought the 7000 said the same thing and they had just spent over 10K.

 

[GOLD Billyen]

I don't think the price of the GPZ is s scaring too many people off. I was talking to the guy in the detector shop in Charters Towers yesterday and he said he had sold 64 7000's and while out this morning I bumped into a couple of fossickers that had bought the 65th off him yesterday afternoon. They were complete newbies so it is not just the experienced people buying them. I have no idea how many 5000's get sold but the 7000 sales surprised me.

hes not a very happy chappy at that shop and those figures as a result, amaze me !!
GT

Sorry, I don't understand? Who's not happy and why? Are you saying they didn't sell 65 GPZ 7000's?

 

[GOLD Billyen]

I decided I'm going to buy some shares.
I did some research on the weekend and have a decent and I believe truthful idea of approximately how many GPZ 7000 have been sold and how they are selling. At least in the Sydney area.

Getting the correct number or as close to the right number is important. If it's a high number the shares will go to the $2-$3 mark. If it's a low number the stock will head back down to old lows.
It's a chance to make some money.

I mentioned I believe the Australian sales will be around 1000 (sold from feb to Jun). After my travels the past week...I now think that's a solid possibility. I'd then guess that Oz sales are a 3rd of Codan's total sales. It may be lower which would be even better. 3000 world wide units sold is a $2+ stock.

Can I ask everyone out there in other states do a little "research" also and post what you "reliably" hear are the number of units being sold (not your personal guess) .
If we can confirm the 1000 OZ number then we can all use our info and get a decent return on the stock ahead of the Aug. numbers.
It's still a guess as we have no way of knowing for sure but, this is a opportunity that we can use to make some real money.

BTW...the stock got cheaper today...down to $1.11 with no company news.

 

[grubstake]

I did some research on the weekend and have a decent and I believe truthful idea of approximately how many GPZ 7000 have been sold and how they are selling. At least in the Sydney area.
Getting the correct number or as close to the right number is important. If it's a high number the shares will go to the $2-$3 mark. If it's a low number the stock will head back down to old lows.
It's a chance to make some money.

There is also the question of profitability. Given that the GPZ uses modified existing (CTX) tooling for its mouldings and the detector is sold relatively 'bare' (no case, no instruction manual), production costs will have been significantly reduced. Also, prior to the introduction of the GPZ , word around the forums was that dealers were not buying stock on normal commercial terms but were rather acting as agents, with all 'in shop' detectors still owned by Minelab. In this case, dealer margins would be significantly lower - perhaps a flat amount of (say) $700 per unit.

In all, this would give the GPZ much higher margins for Codan than previous models, perhaps offsetting the claimed $10M R & D that went into its development.

 

[GOLD Billyen]

I've never really worried about the profitability. I figure they are aiming the 40% net (Microsoft's margins). Anything above that is gravy and could possible invite more counterfeits.
Interesting info about the dealer terms. I figured the retailer would be looking at a 10-20% cut but, 6-7% sounds better.
If correct...and they sell JUST 2000. That could be 16M (or 9 cents EPS) going straight to the bottom line. Good lord! The shares will explode.

I thought the R&D cost was higher? I was thinking 20M+ going off the annual reports the past few years.

August can't come soon enough.

 

[GOLD Billyen]

Found this.
They won a contract for the US VA.
We talk about gold side of it but 40-50% of their business comes from non-detectors and they are growing that part nicely.

Codan and By Light to provide resilient HF radio network for US Department of Veterans Affairs
http://www.australiandefence.com.au...network-for-us-department-of-veterans-affairs

 

[grubstake]

That contract could be hugely significant to Codan - the US Dept of Veterans Affairs is an enormous organisation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Veterans_Affairs

 

[GOLD Billyen]

I was thinking the same think but, I think the company has to announce it to the ASX if it is significant to sales and earnings. They didn't even mention a dollar amount. You'd think they would? Maybe their investor relation people are asleep?

No matter...it's good news and can only be a good thing as other companies will know that Codan is doing biz with the big boys and will open other doors.

 

[GOLD Billyen]

The shares have stabilised around the $1.10-1.20 area. Very little volume which means people are waiting for news.
I hope they give some guidance to the market before Aug.