Bad times coming

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You're so right Goldierocks, these things do mainly represent the average punter in general. It always makes me laugh though how we get these different positions taken by many people on whether shares, gold, real estate etc. are a better option one way over the other. Often it's a balanced mixture of each that is best, or for some people none at all, as for them cash is king. There are even situations where people are better off renting, and of course having said that, there are some who don't even see education itself as an investment, which is sad.

Having spent some time in the debt recovery and terms of trade industry some years ago, I know that even gold won't save you from losing your assets if you make bad choices. Horses for courses
 
Deepseeker said:
You're so right Goldierocks, these things do mainly represent the average punter in general. It always makes me laugh though how we get these different positions taken by many people on whether shares, gold, real estate etc. are a better option one way over the other. Often it's a balanced mixture of each that is best, or for some people none at all, as for them cash is king. There are even situations where people are better off renting, and of course having said that, there are some who don't even see education itself as an investment, which is sad.

Having spent some time in the debt recovery and terms of trade industry some years ago, I know that even gold won't save you from losing your assets if you make bad choices. Horses for courses

All true - all you can say is that for the average punter with enough money for an investment portfolio, it should include property, cash, shares and gold. Speculating with a major part of your assets with one thing is dangerous, except for a house for many people - because it is not rarely speculation just where you park much of your assets, and commonly beats renting. I used to move around a lot with my work, so buying a house was not the best investment for many years, and we first took out a mortgage on a home when I was about 40 (when interest was around 17%!). Your own house is definitely a good investment for most people, because except in a disaster you probably wont sell it completely, but trade up and down as you move. A majority of people who can buy a home probably never get out of housing equity until they move into an old aged home - or as often or not it is the kids who cash it in. So does it matter to you personally that it increased in 300% over 20 years or lost 25% one year - in the end it usually balances over a lifetime (if you have to sell in a low-priced market, you are commonly buying a substitute house in a low-price market)? Also paying the mortgage before you see your pay, which you live on, is often good psychologically - you tend to think of what appears in your account after the bank extracts the payment as what you earn.

One issue with gold is that few people can afford enough - you would probably need about 20% held in gold for it to make a lot of difference in a crash. I probably have 5%, 10% at times (briefly).

Yes, education is definitely an investment. I left school at 15 to work in a sawmill (sweeping). Did a bit of other laboring, had a year each at fitting and turning and motor mechanic courses for apprenticeships. Ended up with a PhD that has served me well, because I woke up to the value of education. So we then focussed on the kid's education and they are doing fine as a result.

But then - we could afford it, and jobs were plentiful when I was young. But I had to move house at least 17 times and countries on 3 occassions, so had to think it through.
 
Wait, Covid didnt wipe us out financially yet? Gold is not 5 to 10 times its value pre pandemic??!! :eek:

The Systems is clearly rigged :lol:

In some of my scattered posts in the last 12 months theres mention of Bitcoin (up) buying and selling business assets (profitable), working more hours and completing more projects than 2019 (increased turnover), taking steps to purchase a residential property, buying my first "new" vehicle, and finally, watching both federal and state governments falling over themselves to give out economic stimulus at record low borrowing rates.

In the Covid discussions there was also a mention of my recollection of the GFC and my opinion things would recover just fine for the average person. In my estimation we are still well on track to be in no worse overall position 2 years post pandemic than we were prior.

Deepseeker youve hit the nail on the head mate, what works for one person doesnt always work for another. Its a mind trap going to look for snakes all the time, as you only find....well, snakes.

I only fear that people continue to make poor decisions based on corruptable and misinformed opinions based in white noise, when its clear that Western Civilisation isnt ready to collapse just yet. :cool: Its additional suffering and worry without just cause, theres enough of that to go around already.
 
Had a mate call me at work today to say Happy Christmas.
Anyway we were talking about old times 1980s etc.

His Nieces and Nephews sailed through co-vid on full rate Job keeper / job seeker and are saying it's been the best economic boom in their lives?
Unlike me and my mate who have worked our entire lives and have very little to show for it in economic terms, just worn out bodies.
I know many people in there 30s who have never worked a single day in their lives, but the Government will rob my Superannuation to pay
for their retirements. Kind of sucks big time but the pandemic has given them the best excuse to re distribute wealth. ]:D ]:D ]:D ]:D ]:D
 
Psychology of Money
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/psychology-money

That's the title of this well written article , the debauching of currency is in full swing .
If you get an understanding of what is happening you will be far ahead of the sheep ! :eek:

1609031040_images.jpg
 
Outback said:
Psychology of Money
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/psychology-money

That's the title of this well written article , the debauching of currency is in full swing .
If you get an understanding of what is happening you will be far ahead of the sheep ! :eek:

https://www.prospectingaustralia.com/forum/img/member-images/1194/1609031040_images.jpg

One should always be happy with one's source of information:

Zero Hedge - ABC Bulgaria. "Zero Hedge or ZeroHedge is a far-right[11] libertarian[16] financial blog,[12][13].....Over time, Zero Hedge expanded into non-financial analysis,[c] including conspiracy theories and fringe rhetoric[26] that has been associated with the US radical right[13][27] and a pro-Russian bias.[1][28][29][30] Zero Hedge's non-financial commentary has led to a number of Site bans by various global social media platforms, although its 2019 Facebook ban[31] and 2020 Twitter ban were later reversed.[13][32].....Australian telecom company Telstra temporarily denied access to Zero Hedge and other websites on 20 March 2019 as a result of the Christchurch mosque shootings.[47][48][49]....Zero Hedge was banned from the Google Ads platform on 17 June 2020. An email from Google to NBC said that Zero Hedge violated Google's content policy that "explicitly prohibit derogatory content that promotes hatred, intolerance, violence or discrimination based on race from monetizing."

"The 29 April 2016 unmasking article by Bloomberg, quoted former website staffer Colin Lokey as saying: "I can't be a 24-hour cheerleader for Hezbollah, Moscow, Tehran, Beijing, and Trump anymore. It's wrong. Period. I know it gets you views now, but it will kill your brand over the long run. This isn't a revolution. It's a joke." Lokey told Bloomberg that he was pressured to frame issues in a way he felt was "disingenuous," summarizing its political stances as "Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry=dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft."[25] Lokey provided chat transcripts in which Ivandjiiski refers to Americas "silent majority" as "beastly", while Backshall acknowledges life in the U.S. is bad "outside of my bubble".[25]

"Wallace-Wells noted that the site demonstrated a pro-Russian bias, stating the site had a "pointed" Russophilia.[28]......In March 2020, American journalist Seth Hettena wrote an opinion-piece in The New Republic titled "Is Zero Hedge a Russian Trojan Horse?", and provided details on the links between Krassimir Ivandjiiski (the site publisher's Bulgarian father), and Soviet-era activities in propaganda, revealed during litigation initiated by the father against Hettena in the Bulgarian courts.[1] Hettena commented that Zero Hedge has become "a forum for the hateful, conspiracy-driven voices of the angry white men of the alt-right. Racists, anti-Semites, extreme right-wingers, and conspiracy nuts were an underserved audience, and, as it turns out, a profitable one."[1]

"The New Republic and New York magazine have identified Daniel Ivandjiiski as the founder of Zero Hedge.[1][7] The New York article made assertions regarding Ivandjiiski's background, particularly his Bulgarian citizenship, his FINRA charge and lifetime ban from securities trading, and his father, Krassimir Ivandjiiski's, own controversial news and political website, Strogo Sekretno (Bulgarian: ; English "Top Secret"),[a] and Krassimir's position in the pre-1990 Bulgarian-Soviet administration"."
 
Outback said:
goldierocks said:
One should always be happy with one's source of information:

The author of that article is Alasdair Macleod ~ https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/alasdair-macleod
So yes I was happy with the source .

PS : Did you bother to read the whole thing before commenting about Zero hedge ?

Jack :lol:
The Alasdair McLeod who predicted the dollar would be destroyed by the edge of 2020, who predicted the stockmarket would crash in October and who has his articles appear in Zerohedge?

https://thedailycoin.org/2020/07/15/dollar-destroyed-by-year-end-alasdair-macleod/

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...1887ACBEF431DEFCC7181887ACBEF431&&FORM=VDRVSR

And whose job is selling precious metals to people by convincing them that currency and the share market are about to collapse? As his website says:

"Our mission is to make physical gold and precious metals accessible to everyone. We designed the Goldmoney Holding to provide our clients with the lowest possible prices for dealing and storage while delivering the highest level of security and transparency. A Goldmoney Holding allows you to securely purchase precious metals owned in your name at insured vaults across eight countries. A Goldmoney Holding is a custodial account providing allocated, segregated, and physically deliverable bullion".

Ah well, we will have to disagree re the reliability of some sources. ;)
 
So you didn't read the article GR ' but looked up AM's predictions & current background .
He could well be proven correct about the demise of the worlds share markets & currencies .

Have Fun ;) :beer:
Jack
 
Outback said:
So you didn't read the article GR ' but looked up AM's predictions & current background .
He could well be proven correct about the demise of the worlds share markets & currencies .

Have Fun ;) :beer:
Jack

Yes I read it, and found a few statements I thought rather contradictory (e.g. some of the worst inflationary and deflationary periods were when we were on a gold standard, and the 1920/30 depression was during a deflationary period and most economists think it would have been better if the US rapidly printed money to get out of it). The advantages of returning to a gold standard, even if it were possible, are very debatable.

https://www.livescience.com/19126-gold-standard-bad-idea.html

However most of all, of I find someone yelling that the sky is falling is actually selling sky supports, I feel that it devalues their credibility, especially if they keep advancing the date.
 
goldierocks said:
Outback said:
So you didn't read the article GR ' but looked up AM's predictions & current background .
He could well be proven correct about the demise of the worlds share markets & currencies .

Have Fun ;) :beer:
Jack

Yes I read it, and found a few statements I thought rather contradictory (e.g. some of the worst inflationary and deflationary periods were when we were on a gold standard, and the 1920/30 depression was during a deflationary period and most economists think it would have been better if the US rapidly printed money to get out of it). The advantages of returning to a gold standard, even if it were possible, are very debatable.

https://www.livescience.com/19126-gold-standard-bad-idea.html

However most of all, of I find someone yelling that the sky is falling is actually selling sky supports, I feel that it devalues their credibility, especially if they keep advancing the date.

Good on you for reading it :clap:

There is merit in the above that the Federal Reserve System at the time could have stopped monetary deflation by expanding the money supply thus letting the whole think blow up quicker with maybe less pain .

This time we are entering the perfect financial storm of monumental destruction & the sky will fall down :8
Hope you have some extra beans stashed :eek:

Enjoyed the article by Natalie Wolchover about a gold standard , she also was involved in this one ;- https://www.livescience.com/23500-why-men-love-breasts.html

Cheers & Beers
jack
 
:p love it. However she was quoting economists, they are not her ideas.

Yes, I have enough to live on for a couple of years even at the present price (long enough for things to sort out), plus real estate that I should not lose (simply because I have gold). I don't question things like the USA currency continuing to devalue. and a probable return to significant inflation as money is printed. But that won't cause the sky to fall - while hyperinflation is never entirely impossible with totally incompetent government, it is extremely unlikely. And I know the other havoc that returning to a gold standard would produce.

"Given that the U.S. gold reserve is an estimated 260 million ounces -- worth around $431 billion -- to convert to the gold standard, Washington would first have to acquire a massive amount of bullion. One method would be to buy some of the estimated $10 trillion worth of gold in the world. Unfortunately, the more gold the U.S. bought, the higher the price of gold would go, and the higher the price tag of moving to the gold standard would rise. The other option would be to raise the price of gold in dollars by legal legerdemain from today's level of about $1,660 per ounce to $10,000 per ounce, which would allow the existing gold reserves to cover the existing monetary base. Unfortunately, doing that would seriously destabilize the economy, overwhelming the alleged benefits of the switch to a gold-based currency".

https://www.aol.com/2012/08/30/gold-standard-return-how-it-affects-you/

With the second option, that people here are always proposing, the Indian public. who are thought to hold one eighth of all the gold ever produced, would become instant millionaires. The Chinese, Americans and Australians (especially the Australians with only a tiny population but a comparable annual gold production to the other two) would follow close behind. Great eh? Nope, salaries would be horrendous (but why work?), our inflation would go through the roof, our goods would be too expensive to export. Noone could afford our iron ore. coal or agricultural produce, and this would cause overnight collapse of many economies, potentially even starvation. " Australia is estimated to have the largest gold mine reserves worldwide. Australia and South Africa hold a large share of the worlds gold mine reserves, accounting for 10,000 metric tons and 5,300 metric tons, respectively". Russia has the next greatest potential. In terms of government funds (gold in central banks), the UK would be instantly broke (and they have no mines). "The trouble is, while salaries might bob up and down with the price of gold, the amount of debt people owe wouldn't. If the value of a dollar rose, and salaries were cut to compensate, that would translate into a heavy fiscal blow as people would be left working more hours to repay their credit card debts, mortgages and other loans. But of course that money would go to gold mine shareholders (foreign?) not immediately to the public, although it would be highly inflationary. "For the government, returning to the gold standard would make the economy harder to manage. For ordinary workers, it would make long-term planning and borrowing almost impossible.The trouble is, while salaries might bob up and down with the price of gold, the amount of debt people owe wouldn't. If the value of a dollar rose, and salaries were cut to compensate, that would translate into a heavy fiscal blow as people would be left working more hours to repay their credit card debts, mortgages and other loans".

For the government, returning to the gold standard would make the economy harder to manage. For ordinary workers, it would make long-term planning and borrowing almost impossible.

https://www.aol.com/2012/08/30/gold-standard-return-how-it-affects-you/

And the advantage? "under the gold standard, deep, brutal recessions were pretty much a way of life. Over the 73 years from 1860 to 1933, when the U.S. went off a direct gold standard, the country suffered through 19 recessions. In the last 73 years, by comparison, the U.S. economy has gone into recession 13 times -- in one respect, only a slight improvement over the gold standard years. But the real change has been in the severity of the recessions. Before the U.S. went off gold, recessions lasted an average of 26 months. After the country dumped the gold standard, the average shrank to 11 months. To put it in context, the Great Recession lasted 18 months, making it 30% shorter than the average gold-standard-era recession".

Which is why I always recommend a balanced portfolio as a general principle - you survive even in a crisis. And I am an experienced gold geologist (who has found one significant mine) so would expect to be in demand (and they can pay me in gold).
 
Hello GR ,
Best I get back to you as I'm half pis*ed & wish to study your post sober before replying .

Suggest you adjust your quoted gold price of about $1660.00 US to today's $1872.01 , better check your other figures as well ' I'm saying this with respect . :)

Cheers
Jack . :beer:
 
Outback said:
Hello GR ,
Best I get back to you as I'm half pis*ed & wish to study your post sober before replying .

Suggest you adjust your quoted gold price of about $1660.00 US to today's $1872.01 , better check your other figures as well ' I'm saying this with respect . :)

Cheers
Jack . :beer:
No idea where you are referring to re price.

Ah I see - no that is not todays price, that is the price at the time of writing - it is a quote from the article that I have given the url for.

Likewise I believe the gold price would have to be $20,000 not $10.000 - I don't agree to the finest detail with the articles.
 
This is getting like a episode of "Blue Hill".

My 2 cents worth is, you can liken it earth quake pressure,and it will go bang with no warning :bomb:
 
What GS ' you just copy and post stuff at the time of writing without checking the date of the url :eek:

Not that interested in your posts anymore , shame as you posted some good stuff earlier :(

Why have you never signed off with your first name ?

jack
 
Probly best in the light of day now... just to clear the mind :Y:

Not me... im just about to have my first beer :beer:
 
Adrian ss said:
And now China is building a "Fishing Port" 200 k of our shores.
How long do you reckon it will be before we see Chinese war ships and subs parked in that port.
What the hell does the New Guinea Gov think they are doing

Correction. As usual the Aussie government is slow. Should of secured it years ago. Beaten by the Chinese.

Slow with OBD. Goodbye Holden.
 

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